Many facets of the Republican presidential primary can be analyzed using game theory. Each participant seeks victory through a combination of skill, luck, and money. A great of strategy is involved, as becoming too dominant may result in all opponents ganging up on the front-runner, instead of distributing attacks equally, thereby weakening the strongest competitor. Conversely, a candidate who is not perceived as a threat may be left alone for a while, thus enhancing his or her relative position.
Throughout this campaign cycle, Mitt Romney has consistently been at the top of national polls. While being subject to attacks, until this week Romney has not faced the unanimous scrutiny that is likely required to undermine his position as the overwhelming favorite.
Romney is viewed by many as an establishment candidate who appeals to moderates and is most likely to defeat President Barack Obama in the general election. The individual strategies of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum have involved emerging as the strongest conservative alternative and coalescing support among much of the party’s base. For the most part, each ascended to poll numbers comparable to Romney’s, but then retreated once that elevated status invited further negative scrutiny and attacks.
Candidates seeking conservative support have been unable to separate themselves, which is the best case scenario for Romney. Possessing an aura of invincibility may convince undecided primary voters to support a candidate who they see as the inevitable nominee. However, the GOP challengers are now converging on Romney, in an effort to dilute his support and prolong the primary.
Even if Romney manages to survive these attacks and win the nomination, he may emerge as a weakened candidate heading into the November election. This electoral phenomenon may help explain why historically, the vast majority of incumbent presidents seeking re-election ultimately prevailed.
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